IT'S (cautiously) HAPPENING(?)
Finally, FINALLY.
I think it's finally happening.
Tonight into the weekend we'll be entering a stretch of daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across central Illinois and surrounding portions of the extremely dry, brown, crunchy, parched Midwest.
The two maps below show the probability of receiving 1" or more of rain in the next 10 days with Champaign County, IL highlighted in white.
Both of our most accurate global models show 80-90%+ probabilities of one inch or more of rain falling in Champaign County (& surrounding portions of central Illinois and Indiana). Will it rain & storm every day Thursday into next week? Probably not. But getting into a pattern like this where we have the chance for thunderstorms every day is crucial.
When we see prolonged dryness in the Midwest during the spring and summer there becomes a bit of a compounding feedback loop. Dry soil, vegetation, and dry near surface air all work against incoming precipitation chances and intensify the growing drought. We've got to start somewhere, and that somewhere typically needs to be either a slow-moving, prolonged heavy rainfall event, or a prolonged stretch of many chances for rain.
If we can cash in on a couple of these clusters of thunderstorms late week into the weekend there's a good chance we can get a soaking rain out of it and begin mitigating the worsening drought situation.
The unfortunately reality is that a few of the storms that bring badly needed rainfall could also bring with them large hail and damaging winds. A cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop across portions of central Illinois late Wednesday night, and a few of the storms may produce severe hail. Additional storms could pop up across central Illinois on Thursday afternoon bringing more severe elements with them.
I’m along for the ride just as you all are - will we get rain? - will I photograph a thunderstorm over Illinois ever again? Talk soon.