Dreaming of a Stormy Summer
Look, I’m not trying to overlook the month of May, climatologically one of the most active for severe local storms in the American Midwest. That being said, it’s hard not to be a little giddy about the prognosis for the coming summer pattern. For some time now, my colleagues and I have noted one of the strongest signals in several years for an active June-July-August with northwest flow and routine thunderstorm activity from the Northern & Central Plains into the Midwest.
It feels like there should be plenty of storm observation opportunities, but I’m also just excited about the potential for a summer with those routine summer thunderstorm vibes. It’s been a boring last few years with the jet stream seemingly soaring into northern Canada by June 1st.
Southwest U.S. monsoon chasers may not love the outlook for summer 2023, as it suggests we may not see a second consecutive active season down there.
I want to acknowledge that the background map used here is the EPS precipitation outlook issued in early April. We’ll get an update to this forecast in a few days, but supporting guidance has changed very little in the last 30 days, a nod to the consistency of this signal.
At this range, this all remains spectulative at best. The signal is there for a stormy summer in the Midwest - but how all of this shakes out remains to be seen. Does this portend a summer season with increased high-end severe weather frequency including tornadoes and damaging wind producing thunderstorm clusters, or do we see an elevated risk for mostly non-severe, slow-moving heavy rain producing thunderstorm clusters with locally or widespread flooding concerns? Or is the summer just cool and gloomy?
These are details that won’t emerge until we get a bit closer and gain a sense of the background features that will be driving the pattern across North America, their location, and intensity.
Speculation and disclaimers aside, I’m just excited to see a summer forecast that isn’t a slam dunk for heat and drought but instead leaves room for dreaming about summertime “thunderboomers”, as I fondly recall my grandma calling them.